Sea level rising to top of Monroe issue list

By Steve Estes

A nationwide environmental group called 350.org is traveling throughout South Florida urging local governments to stop studying the science behind projected sea level rise and begin to implement whatever local strategies they can to mitigate the coming rise in ocean waters.

Capt. Dan Knipsis, a member of the organization and a charter boat captain from Miami-Dade County, recently told an audience that if no action is taken on climate change in the very near future, sea level rise may well become the top issue facing local governments.

“We live on a living, breathing world where every system is interconnected. When we mess with one system, it affects the others,” said Knipsis.

The goal, said Knipsis, is to return the atmosphere to 350 parts-per-million of carbon dioxide to be able to reverse some of the damage already done.

“At carbon dioxide levels at or below 350 ppm, our living world finds ways to maintain its own health. Above that, we begin to exceed the planet’s ability to heal itself,” he said.

The first of those conditions will be overall temperature rise, including ice cap melts and a resultant sea level rise, giving rise to other population-related issues and forcing entire areas to move or mitigate against rising water, he says.

In a study done two years ago, Chris Bergh of the Nature Conservancy detailed the potential loss of land on Big Pine Key based on the annual, accepted sea level rise over the next 20 to 60 years.

In that report, Bergh says that using the most conservative estimate of sea level rise, Big Pine Key could lose more than 11 percent of its land mass in less than 30 years as sea level rises.

The latest projections call for a three-to-six-inch sea level rise in 20 years on the conservative side.

“But we’re seeing signs that the process is accelerating,” said Knipsis. “If it accelerates two-fold, we’re potentially looking at a foot of sea level rise on the upper end of the conservative side in 20 years.”

There are roads in the Keys that are less than a foot above sea level, says Knipsis.

The problem is one that has been on the radar in the Keys for several years, but there is probably very little that can be done on the local level to change anything of significance, said newly-named County Mayor David Rice.

Sea level rise, while a real phenomenon, is not something that Monroe County can combat on its own, says Rice.

“It’s not like we can build dikes around these islands. We’re built on porous rocks. The water will find a way in if it wants a way in,” he said.

Rice said there are things that can be done to delay incursion by rising sea levels, but the overall effects may be minimal.

Monroe County has joined with other South Florida counties in a climate compact that will seek both state and federal action to mitigate the short-term effect of sea level rise.

“By bringing a larger group to bear, we may be able to get the attention of our state and federal leaders to pay attention. We will be one of the first areas affected by even a small rise in sea level,” said Rice.

Part of the reason for sea level rise, said Knipsis from the 350 report, is increasing water temperatures, an average which has gone up two degrees in 60 years. The extra temperatures affect the movement and abundance of phytoplankton which are the oxygen generators of the oceans.

“Phytoplankton, through photosynthesis, produce about 70 percent of the earth’s oxygen. We lose the phytoplankton, we lose the battle to breathe,” he said.

Key West has documented a nine inch rise in sea level in its harbors in the last 100 years, with the rise accelerating in the last 50 years, about the time the industrial revolution took off and man began pouring billions of tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

“We pump 32 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every year. With an atmosphere just six miles deep, it is possible to fill it up,” said Knipsis.

Local conservation and land management groups have already begun to notice coastal effects from sea level rise.

Rising sea level has begun to cause a die off of pine trees in some coastal communities in the Keys. The phenomenon has been documented on Cudjoe Key and Big Pine Key, but it is widely believed that all islands are experiencing some sea-level rise effects.

Climate change will be addressed in the county’s new comprehensive land use plan. Ths far, no concrete strategies have been devised.

That element will be presented to the county planning commission and then the Board of County Commissioners next year.