Sea level rise gets local attention

Even though we are probably decades away from seeing noticeable impacts from sea level rise, the time to begin thinking about and planning for those impacts is right now, says County Commissioner George Neugent.

Neugent hosted a town-hall meeting about sea level rise last week, with guest speakers talking about the impacts on property values, the impacts on habitat and wildlife, and potential ways to combat the effects of sea-level rise.

“Five years ago, only scientific communities were talking about sea level rise. Now, it has risen to the level of a daily conversation on street corners,” said Neugent. “Our biggest question will be ‘Is this something we can do anything about?’”

“Eventually,” said Neugent, “there are things we’ll have to do. And there are things we can do right now to prepare.”

He suggested that all governmental entities with road maintenance responsibility begin to raise road levels each time a surface is repaved, and that all municipal building be done with graded drives and parking lots.

Neugent said he would like to see local sewer authorities find a way to reuse all the dirt they are digging up to put in collection lines instead of hauling it away to the mainland and disposing of it, using it to raise road beds or up-slope the grades on public waterfront parcels.

“We also have to make sure that we are continually checking on salt water intrusion into our fresh water aquifer,” he added.

That scenario came much too close to being a reality last year when the normal dry season lowered levels in the Biscayne Aquifer, from where Monroe County derives most of its fresh-water supply, to the point where salt water incursion became an issue.

“We have to find ways to protect our potable water delivery system from salt-water incursion,” said Jim Reynolds, executive director of the Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority. “It may cost us billions to protect the hundreds of millions we have invested in our critical infrastructure.”

Reports available at the meeting stated that the National Weather Service has documented a nine-inch rise in sea level in Key West since 1913, which is about the same level the more moderate projections show for the Keys in the next 90 years.

But even the most sophisticated models have come under fire in recent weeks, not because they no longer forecast a sea level rise, but because they claim they can no longer predict the rise with any certainty given that is seems to be accelerating.

“We don’t know exactly how fast or exactly how much sea level will rise, but we know that it will,” said Chris Bergh with the Nature Conservancy.

He says even the anecdotal evidence reveals some rise in sea level surrounding the Keys.

“If you look at some of the near-shore natural basins, you can see pine stumps under water where a pine tree couldn’t have grown unless it was dry at one time,” said Bergh.

Anne Morkill, manager of the National Key Deer Refuge, said that aerial photography shows where actual coastal configuration changes have occurred on a small scale.

“As the levels continue to rise, there may be periods of transition where rocklands become salt marsh, which changes the ecology of the parcel, and further endangers the habitat and wildlife that use those parcels,” said Morkill.

Members of the audience pointed out other areas of daily lives that may well be affected as seal levels continue to rise.

Some reported that auto manufacturers have begun not to honor warranties on cars used almost exclusively in a salt-rich environment such as the Keys.

“Beyond the warranties, we’re looking at increased maintenance of vehicles from driving through salt water more regularly,” said local contractor Dave Tuttle.

Others also suggested that auto insurance companies might scale back coverages in the Keys to factor out salt water damage, and that flood insurance providers might stop offering the coverage as normal rain fall produces increasing flooding in ground-level homes and out buildings.

“This is a much bigger picture than whether we can see a higher water level in our canal,” said Neugent.

There were about 25 percent of the people in the audience who were there simply to try and refute sea level rise as a phenomenon.

Local resident Cindy Cameron, wife of the chairman of the county’s planning commission,  called sea level rise a major worldwide hoax, and read passages from a book that purports to “bust the myth” of global climate change and sea level rise.

The book from which she read has been discredited by scientists from around the globe for a number of years, according to Doug Gregory, county extension agent for marine resources.

“Whether sea level will rise in the coming years is not the issue. The issue is how much and how fast,” said Gregory.

Gregory said the county has just completed an emission inventory survey designed to discover where the carbon footprint exists and how it might be reduced.

“Monroe County has pledged to reduce carbon emissions by 20 percent over the next 10 years,” said Gregory. “First, it will save the taxpayer money, and second, it’s the right thing to do.”

Gregory said the county has begun an inventory of such mundane items as the number of refrigerators available to staff, the replacement of normal hot water heaters with solar-powered hot water heaters and the use of more hybrid vehicles.

“There are many small things the county can do to reduce its emissions footprint by reducing energy consumption that will save the taxpayer more money in the long run,” said Gregory.

Bergh said there are many areas where doing something good for the environment and sea level rise might result in a win-win for those issues and for the taxpayer wallet in the short run.

“We have to explore where those lucky coincidences exist and take full advantage of them, and we need to push our political leaders to allow the latitude to find those coincidences,” said Bergh.

He also pointed out that the brute-strength approach utilized by other communities, such as dikes and levees, won’t work here in the Keys.

“We are on a porous limestone rock. The same foundation that allows our water to drain and filter its way to the ocean will allow the ocean to filter its way onto land that is below sea level,” said Bergh.

Scott Donahue of the National Marine Fisheries office said there are also other issues at work with global climate change and sea level rise that will be more noticeable sooner to a large segment of the Keys economy.

As carbon dioxide levels rise in the atmosphere, says Donahue, the acidification of the ocean’s water increases.

“The process creates a calcium carbonate that ocean life uses, however, they won’t be able to use it at the rate it’s being produced, raising the acidification levels even more,” said Donahue.

In response to the naysayers in the audience who suggested just planting more trees, Donahue pointed out that the massive deforestation of the planet has already created a spiraling upward curve in carbon dioxide levels as plants take in the gas and emit oxygen. With fewer plants, there are fewer oxygen molecules released.

“We can’t plant enough trees to use al the carbon dioxide we have now,” said Donahue.

And that will begin to be felt in the local fishing industry long before residents notice higher water levels in their canals.

“The building blocks of ocean life will begin to die off as the acidification continues. That will begin to filter out into the food web,” he said.

He said that ocean acidification, and its effects on marine life, “will fundamentally change  what we do here with many marine species dependant on carbon dioxide for survival.”

Neugent said he will host further town-hall style meetings in the future to continue the dialogue.

“We have to keep the public dialogue going on this issue,” he said. “The Keys will be one of the areas where sea level rise is first noticed because of our low-lying status. We have to be out in front of this one.”

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